风湿性心脏病机械瓣膜置换术后脑卒中时间序列分析和风险预警模型构建

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的开发用于快速识别风湿性心脏病外科手术治疗相关脑卒中的风险模型,优化围术期管理。方法回顾性分析2013年12月至2023年11月风湿性心脏病患者632例,采用R4.3.2软件进行中断时间序列分析,通过建立ARIMA预测模型;再多因素COX比例风险回归模型对不同时期的脑卒中主要风险因素进行探讨。结果 ARIMA预测模型短期1年内预测效果较佳;COX等比例风险模型中,1组有高血压史和有冠心病史为高危因素;两组INR 值在2.5-3.0之外是高危因素。结论 ARIMA模型短期预测效果佳,可预测一定未来趋势;COX高风险人群筛查模型说明了一定的RHDPRS主要危险因素改变趋势,为改善RHDPRS防治提供方向。

关键词: 风湿性心脏病, 脑卒中, 危险因素, 预测模型, 中断时间序列分析

吴元伊, 罗金龙, 李香伟. 风湿性心脏病机械瓣膜置换术后脑卒中时间序列分析和风险预警模型构建[J]. 心血管病防治知识, 2026, 16(4): 32-36.

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